Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin appears to be one of the most controversial players in the 2013 fantasy draft. The guy was leading all fantasy quarterbacks in scoring before injuring his right knee for the first time in week 14. As a rookie, by the way.
But the durability concerns are real. Even before the knee problems, RG3 suffered a concussion in Week 5 and dealt with sore ribs midway through the season. As a wiry 223-pound quarterback to begin with, he was an injury risk.
And now we have this right knee to chew on all offseason. Here’s what we know: In Week 14, Griffin suffered a sprained LCL. He sat out the next game, but returned for Week 16, against the better judgment of Dr. James Andrews. “I’ve been a nervous wreck letting him come back as quickly as he has,” the renowned doctor said.
RG3 posted wins against the Eagles and Cowboys to capture the NFC East crown. He re-injured his knee early in the Wild Card game against the Seahawks. Then the knee seemed to say “no more!” in the fourth quarter, simply giving up when Griffin tried to recover a fumble.
The result was damage to the LCL, ACL, and meniscus. Griffin underwent surgery on January 9. The procedure was called “total reconstruction” of the knee. And Dr. Andrews took a patellar tendon graft from the healthy left knee to help repair the damaged right. That means RG3 will be tasked with rehabbing 2 knees this offseason. And remember, this is the second time he has torn his ACL, the first at Baylor in 2009.
A torn ACL is bad. A twice torn ACL is worse. But the worst could be the cartilage in Griffin’s right knee. According to a team source, that’s the biggest concern right now. RG3 doesn’t have much cartilage left after undergoing 2 major surgeries. And that could eventually lead to a bone-on-bone condition, something that can ruin a man’s career.
So where does that leave us? Long-term, Griffin’s future doesn’t look as bright now as it did a few months ago. A small quarterback running with a bad knee isn’t a good bet to enjoy a long NFL career. RG3 would do well to control his game a bit: slide a little more, go out of bounds when possible, take a few less hits each week.
In the short term, Griffin will be in a race to be ready for the 2013 season opener. The media has released a 6-8 month schedule. That sounds optimistic to us, but only time will tell.
One thing we’d caution against is using Vikings RB Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season as a barometer for RG3’s prospects for 2013. Medical advances have made coming back from a torn ACL a more reasonable task. What was once a death sentence for a man’s career is now more of a blip. But AP remains the exception to the rule. While many guys are back on the field 7-8 months after ACL surgery, most still take more than 12 months to get back to pre-injury shape.
For Griffin, that means he’s unlikely to match last season’s 815 rushing yards and 7 TDs. And while he was impressive as a passer, racking up 3,200 yards and 20 TDs, it was his production on the ground that made him a fantasy stud. In fact, a whopping 34% of RG3’s fantasy points came from his grounding totals. Cut them in half, a realistic projection for 2013, and Griffin becomes a low-end QB1.
And that’s likely where it will fall in our preseason rankings this summer. Sure, RG3 has advantages far beyond that. Like Adrian Peterson, he’s a workaholic who could come back quicker than usual from that shattered knee. And the fact that he’s already been through the rehab process should help. On top of that, Griffin could be even better as a passer in his second NFL season.
But the risk is as high as the upside. First of all, RG3 is not going to be a good bet to play 16 games. On top of that, we can’t know how a twice-repaired knee will affect his ability to run. Griffin averaged 58 rushing yards per game before injuring his knee for the first time. That number dropped to 29 in 3 post-injury starts. Ultimately, RG3 will miss out on valuable offseason practice reps to get more comfortable on offense and with his receivers.
We’ll have to see where Griffin comes off the board in fantasy drafts this summer. It will be worth betting after the sixth or seventh round. But before that, we’ll stay away. And if he rolls the dice, he’ll need to secure a high-quality backup within his next picks.