After the 12th weekend of college football play, eight teams now get harder to ignore: Louisiana Tech, Kansas, West Virginia, Missouri, Ohio State, Arizona State, Hawaii and Boise State. All have only 1 loss, except for Kansas and Hawaii who remain undefeated.
The new AP Top 25 poll for Sunday night (11-18-07) showed LSU ranked first, Kansas second, Missouri third, West Virginia fourth, Ohio state fifth, Arizona state seventh, Hawaii on 14 and Boise State on 17.
The new BCS rankings for Monday (11-19-07) showed LSU in first place, Kansas in second place, West Virginia in third place, Missouri in fourth place, Ohio State in fifth place, Arizona State in sixth place, Hawaii in ranked 15th and Boise State ranked 19th.
The AP poll by sportswriters and broadcasters has no effect on who will play in the national championship game.
BCS Rankings determine entrants based on a complicated 3-component formula: USA Today Coaches Poll, Harris Interactive College Football Poll, and an average of 6 computer rankings, including Sagarin ratings. Each component counts as one-third of a team’s overall BCS score in the BCS Rankings.
All of that sounds pretty boring and it is, but don’t underestimate the importance of the BCS ranking because there are millions of dollars at stake. It’s not just the BCS National Championship Game in New Orleans on January 1. 8, 2008 that generates large payouts for the teams and conferences involved.
There are also 4 other official BCS Bowl games: the Sugar Bowl on January 1st. January 1, 2008, the Rose Bowl on January 1. January 1, 2008, the Fiesta Bowl on January 1. January 2, 2008 and the Orange Bowl on January 2. 3, 2008.
The total payout for the 5 BCS games this year will be $85 million and the total economic impact across the 5 host cities is estimated at over $1.2 billion.
The bottom line is that at least 10 teams in the best BCS standings will play in these games. The champions of the 6 major NCAA conferences (Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pacific 10 (Pac 10), and Southeastern Conference (SEC)) are guaranteed a spot in 1 of the 5 BCS games. The other slots are up for grabs under a complicated set of qualifications.
One of those qualifications is that a team outside of the major 6 conferences that finishes in the Top 12 of the final BCS standings automatically qualifies.
Knowing this notable fact, you can better understand why Hawaii (ranked 15th) and Boise State (ranked 19th) are so upset about their current BCS ranking: Neither is in the Top 12 despite the 10-0 record of Hawaii and Boise State 10-1. Registration.
Western Athletic Conference commissioner Karl Benson spent most of the rest of his weekend trying to convince “everyone and his dog Spot” about Hawaii’s big win against Nevada, currently ranked 97th by Sagarin among 119 Division 1A schools. Hawaii ultimately won 28-26 on a 45-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining.
Given the polls and BCS positions, no one was listening or believing a word Benson had said.
Considering the 8 teams left in the hunt for a spot in the BCS National Championship Game, Hawaii and Boise State are small players with no real chance. Fortunately, the two collide this weekend when Boise State travels to Hawaii for a showdown.
After the match, one team will move up the BCS rankings and the other is likely to lose even more sight and mind.
Both Hawaii and Boise State are great teams with great records and both will get more attention when they start playing some decent competition. Sagarin rates the strength of Hawaii’s schedule (the quality of their opponents) at 153 and Boise State’s at 122.
Considering there are only 119 Division 1A teams, you better believe these two teams have feasted on inferior talent at best and deserve what they get.
Of the remaining 6 teams, which along with Hawaii and Boise State are undefeated or have just 1 loss, at least 5 of the 6 have played considerably better competition in their quest to be in the national title game.
Arizona State (ranked 6th by the BCS at 9-1) has Sagarin’s best schedule strength rating at 26th. LSU (ranked 1st by the BCS at 10-1) is 27th, West Virginia (ranked 3rd by BCS at 9-1) is 42, Missouri (ranked 4th by BCS at 10-1) is 47, Ohio State (ranked 5th by BCS at 11-1) is 53rd, and in bringing up the rear is Kansas (ranked 2nd by BCS at 11-0) at 101st among 119 Division 1A schools.
Kansas has been playing a weak schedule to rack up 11 straight wins? Yes. Kansas may end up playing in the BCS National Championship Game and winning, but there’s no question that Kansas has played an inferior schedule compared to its BCS competition.
Should Hawaii and Boise State qualify where they are in the BCS? Probably not, given the level of your competition. Is Kansas overrated? Probably. All three can make me more of a believer if they continue to win against better competition.
So I guess I’m posing the question: Who has played the toughest schedule so far this season? Try the Washington Huskies, who are 3-7 on the year.
I seriously doubt Kansas, Hawaii or Boise State would have the records they do if they had played at Ohio State, UCLA, Southern California, Arizona State and Oregon all in their prime, as Washington has.
That’s why Washington is No. 1 in schedule strength nationally and Kansas is 101, Boise State 122 and Hawaii 153.
Kansas takes on Missouri this Saturday in a Big 12 North Division matchup. The winner will likely play Oklahoma or Texas of the South Division for the Big 12 title and a BCS berth somewhere.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley