Almost everyone is familiar with equipment “power ratings”

Let me introduce you to my “Power Ranking Totals” from the NFL. I designed a set of home / away numbers for each team in the NFL. I can combine and adjust them based on performance each week during the season, so I can find value in game totals.

These numbers are based on a calculation that I devised, which goes back a certain number of years for each club. Taking into account the coaches and players. And I give a “percentage weighted” rating for the total scores both at home and away. The process is repeated with a different “weighted percentage” for a number of times. Once finished, the “PRT’s” are ready for the season.

Please note that these are concrete numbers. We must take into account injuries and the weather.

For example: if a starting quarterback is offside. You must decide how many points it is really worth.

Week 1 of 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is out when the Steelers host Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch takes his place.

The “Total Power Rating” for this pairing is 41 (we can expect a total of 41 points to be scored).

The game opened at 37 before Big Ben underwent emergency surgery. Now, in most places, the total is 34.5. It’s not a dramatic drop, is it?

Now we have a difference of 6.5 points in the “PRT” and the actual total. Still take a look to play the ending?

Here are the NFL “Power Rating Totals” for week one

Miami / Pittsburgh 41

Denver / St. Louis 44

NY .Jets / Tennessee 40.5

Buffalo / New England 41.5

Baltimore / Tampa Bay 36.5

Cincinnati / Kansas City 49

Seattle / Detroit 44

Atlanta / Carolina 41

Philadelphia / Houston 43.5

New Orleans / Cleveland 41

Dallas / Jacksonville 38

Chicago / Green Bay 39.5

San Francisco / Arizona 40

Indianapolis Giants / NY 45.5

Minnesota / Washington 43.5

San Diego / Oakland 43

We look for a minimum difference of at least 3 points between the “PRT” and the total bets to consider a play.

Thank you and good luck!

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